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Sic Semper Tyrannis

Monday, September 08, 2008

Gas Prices

Tee Bee,

Fact is gas prices are going down. Oil, and other commodities are in bear market conditions. Do I think the drop to continue beyond late February or early March of '09? No, the predominant pattern is for oil to peak in early summer and then retreat, then it goes sideways for a time then after Labor day the price drops till late winter then it goes back up and up. Of course, for the last couple of years it does not give back in price drops what oil/gas gains in increases.

A lot of people were calling for $5.00/gallon gas this summer, I poo-pooed that and will wait a bit more but I think chance are about even for it next summer.

Most people fight to stay alive today and no matter how little or how big the drop a drop in price helps.

Turmoil in the Middle East in the form of a war involving Iran puts my analysis all off and we will be lucky if gas does not top off at $6.00/gallon. An AQ attack on major Middle Eastern oil facilities will probably drive oil up but not so much as war with Iran.