Bullish On Doyle.

Every now and then I visit a website called Intrade. Intrade is a market maker for futures on current events. What they hay is that? Essentially it is gambling on world events.

Well, they are engaging in the buying and selling of contracts on governor's races throughout our nation. Well here are the numbers for Wisconsin.

Dem to win WI in '06:
Bid: 50.4
Ask: 70.0
Last: 65
Vol: 101
Change +5.0

Republican to win WI in 06
Bid: 30.0
Ask: 49.6
Last: 35
Vol: 195
Change -5.0

Other to win WI in 06
Bid: -
Ask: 5.0
Last: 1
Vol: 0
Change 0

Okay, what does this mean? Well I would say the volumes indicate bullishness on Green but the prices point to Doyle. If we buy a contract on Green right now, we pay somewhere around $35.00 for that contract and if Green wins we are paid $100.00 back. So the price is an indication of certainty. That is those buying and selling contracts on Doyle are more confident of Doyle winning.

However, the volume (number of contracts sold) shows Green contracts are more popular. It will be interesting to see what happens to these contracts as the race really starts to heat up.

BTW, Intrade sells contracts on a wide variety of events. One is Hamas recognizing Israel by a given date and another series relates to the bombing of Iran.