Fiendgold's Futures vs. Thompson's Futures.

At the website Intrade people can buy and sell futures contracts on current events. US politics is one such set of events (they are now have a market for Gitmo closure contracts) you can go to buy & write futures contracts on. In light of this talk about the Senator Fiendgold's presidential aspirations goes here is what the Intrade future's market says about Fiendgold's future as the 2008 Presidential nominee:

Bid/Ask: $0.3/$0.6
Last: $0.5
Volume: 684.

Here is what Intrade says about Thompson's:
Bid/Ask: 1.0/1.1
Last: 1.0
Volume: 427

The payout is $100 - purchase price if the contract you buy happens otherwise you forfeit your purchase price. E.g. you buy a Thompson contract at $1.00, he goes on to become the nominee you get $100 - 1 = $99.00.

So the futures do not look so bright for either WI candidate. Of all the candidates across both parties the market is guessing SHrillary has the best chances of being a nominee (48.8/49.5). On the GOP side George Allen has the highest bid & ask but McCain has the highest volume.